Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present

Seasonal adjustment procedures attempt to estimate the sample realizations of an unobservable economic time series in the presence of both seasonal factors and irregular factors. In this paper we consider a factor which has not been considered explicitly in previous treatments of seasonal adjustment: measurement error. Because of the sample design used in the CPS, measurement error will not be a white noise process, but instead it will be characterized by serial correlation of a known form. We first consider what effect the serially correlated measurement error has on estimation of the non-seasonal component in seasonal adjustment models. We also consider the effect of measurement error on the widely used seasonal adjustment process X11. X11 which is the seasonal adjust procedure used by the BLS will implicitly reduce the effect of measurement error because of the averaging process used. However, this treatment will not be optimal in general. We therefore specify a seasonal adjustment model which takes explicit account of the measurement error. For examples on the unemployment rate, we find that X11 does almost as well as the optimal filter on some series but its efficiency is less than 10% for the teenage unemployment series. We also find that optimal treatment of the measurement error which accounts for the serial correlation can reduce the overall mean square error of the seasonally adjusted series below the variance of the measurement error which is often used as the benchmark for the sampling procedure.

Assembly of hundreds of novel bacterial genomes from the chicken caecum

BACKGROUND: Chickens are a highly important source of protein for a large proportion of the human population. The caecal microbiota plays a crucial role in chicken nutrition through the production of short-chain fatty acids, nitrogen recycling, and amino acid production. In this study, we sequence DNA from caecal content samples taken from 24 chickens belonging to either a fast or a slower growing breed consuming either a vegetable-only diet or a diet containing fish meal. RESULTS: We utilise 1.6 T of Illumina data to construct 469 draft metagenome-assembled bacterial genomes, including 460 novel strains, 283 novel species, and 42 novel genera. We compare our genomes to data from 9 European Union countries and show that these genomes are abundant within European chicken flocks. We also compare the abundance of our genomes, and the carbohydrate active enzymes they produce, between our chicken groups and demonstrate that there are both breed- and diet-specific microbiomes, as well as an overlapping core microbiome. CONCLUSIONS: This data will form the basis for future studies examining the composition and function of the chicken caecal microbiota

Investigation of Seal-to-Floor Effects on Semi-Span Transonic Models

In an effort to achieve the maximum possible Reynolds number (Re) when conducting production testing for flight loads aerodynamic databases, it has been the preferred practice of The Boeing Company / Commercial Airplanes (BCA) -- Loads and Dynamics Group since the early 1990's to test large scale semi-span models in the 11- By 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel (TWT) leg of the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) at the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC). There are many problems related to testing large scale semi-span models of high aspect ratio flexible transport wings, such as; floor boundary layer effects, wing spanwise wall effects, solid blockage buoyancy effects, floor mechanical interference effects, airflow under the model effects, or tunnel flow gradient effects. For most of these issues, BCA has developed and implemented either standard testing methods or numerical correction schemes and these will not be discussed in this document. Other researchers have reported on semi-span transonic testing correction issues, however most of the reported research has been for low Mach testing. Some of the reports for low Mach testing address the difficult problem of preventing undesirable airflow under a semi-span model while ensuring unrestricted main balance functionality, however, for transonic models this issue has gone unresolved. BCA has been cognizant for sometime that there are marked differences in wing pressure distributions from semi-span transonic model testing than from full model or flight testing. It has been suspected that these differences are at least in part due to airflow under the model. Previous efforts by BCA to address this issue have proven to be ineffective or inconclusive and in one situation resulted in broken hardware. This paper reports on a Boeing-NASA collaborative investigation based on a series of small tests conducted between June 2006 and November 2007 in the 11 by 11 foot Transonic Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames on three large commercial jet transport configurations to assess the effects of sealing a semi-span model to the floor and to investigate efficient sealing and testing techniques. This document will show how sealing the model to the floor has a small but remarkably far reaching spanwise effect on wing pressures, wing local section forces and wing force summations

String windings in the early universe

We study string dynamics in the early universe. Our motivation is the proposal of Brandenberger and Vafa, that string winding modes may play a key role in decompactifying three spatial dimensions. We model the universe as a homogeneous but anisotropic 9-torus filled with a gas of excited strings. We adopt initial conditions which fix the dilaton and the volume of the torus, but otherwise assume all states are equally likely. We study the evolution of the system both analytically and numerically to determine the late-time behavior. We find that, although dynamical evolution can indeed lead to three large spatial dimensions, such an outcome is not statistically favored.Comment: 26 pages, LaTeX, 4 eps figure